Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.331033 2.477202 2.632133 2.809321 3.007282 3.222735 3.476453
2025-05-11 2.103652 2.301126 2.521066 2.786729 3.102464 3.470401 3.938845
2025-05-18 1.958743 2.183922 2.443208 2.768552 3.172942 3.669263 4.341879
2025-05-25 1.845574 2.087527 2.373286 2.742686 3.218720 3.828804 4.701869
2025-06-01 1.753550 2.006640 2.311814 2.716238 3.253753 3.969396 5.045903
2025-06-08 1.688492 1.952667 2.277303 2.717588 3.320217 4.153030 5.470846
2025-06-15 1.643729 1.920022 2.265767 2.745364 3.421273 4.391639 6.011917
2025-06-22 1.576105 1.854005 2.206246 2.702810 3.417722 4.473741 6.311952
2025-06-29 1.513561 1.791160 2.146919 2.655534 3.401710 4.532517 6.578220
2025-07-06 1.451924 1.726616 2.081827 2.595563 3.361167 4.546890 6.765034
2025-07-13 1.429975 1.713033 2.084070 2.630258 3.464265 4.801063 7.442425
2025-07-20 1.413414 1.705516 2.093619 2.675193 3.585663 5.098696 8.272914
2025-07-27 1.395421 1.695798 2.100244 2.717170 3.707767 5.417128 9.245315
2025-08-03 1.358436 1.658675 2.066551 2.696235 3.725074 5.548035 9.830514
2025-08-10 1.325197 1.625384 2.036679 2.679040 3.746570 5.688496 10.480355
2025-08-17 1.291959 1.590866 2.003480 2.654546 3.753121 5.799992 11.090414
2025-08-24 1.260609 1.557911 1.971159 2.629493 3.756360 5.904702 11.718023
2025-08-31 1.238632 1.537373 1.956061 2.630772 3.805958 6.110966 12.726624
2025-09-07 1.224831 1.527867 1.956673 2.657083 3.902575 6.431386 14.255836
2025-09-14 1.193835 1.492820 1.917876 2.616770 3.872399 6.466647 14.817010
2025-09-21 1.163142 1.457421 1.877445 2.571957 3.830721 6.470974 15.272842
2025-09-28 1.130655 1.418680 1.830881 2.515071 3.762600 6.406674 15.441999
2025-10-05 1.122748 1.415290 1.837725 2.547987 3.869753 6.773665 17.619044